The Scrutiny Performance Panel – Education met on Thursday 24 September 2026 to discuss the Partneriaeth Business Plan and Annual Progress Update, the Swansea Skills Partnership Annual Update, and the future impacts of the declining birth rate on education and schools. The Panel also reviewed its work plan for the upcoming year.

Partneriaeth Business Plan and Annual Progress Update

Ian Altman, Lead Officer for Partneriaeth, presented an update on the organisation's performance during the 2025-2026 business plan period and outlined the strategic planning for 2026-2027. Partneriaeth, which provides commissioned services for the development of the education workforce across Swansea, Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthenshire, reported on its two main priorities: supporting schools to deliver high-quality provision in commissioned subjects and providing career pathways for educational staff.

During 2025-2026, Swansea schools received 744 days of support from Partneriaeth, representing 35.8% of the total support provided. The report highlighted specific examples of this work, including support for Welsh language and mathematics in Ysgol Bryn Tawe, advanced reading strategies at Gowerton Comprehensive School, and science progression planning for the Bishopston cluster. The business plan for 2026-2027 will continue to focus on these two priorities, with an emphasis on improving teaching quality, middle leadership, and career pathways for educators.

Swansea Skills Partnership Annual Update

David Bawden, Strategic Coordinator for Education Skills, provided an update on the Swansea Skills Partnership (SSP). The SSP, now in its third year of a five-year plan, aims to strengthen collaborative working between education providers and key organisations to equip young people with the skills and qualifications needed for future success. The partnership's three strategic priorities remain: developing stronger partnerships with employers, exploring the delivery of 14-16 vocational programmes, and establishing partnerships for high-quality post-16 programmes.

Significant progress has been made in employer engagement, with over 120 businesses signed up to the Swansea Pledge, offering support to schools. The partnership is also preparing for the introduction of Vocational Certificates of Secondary Education (VCSEs) in 2027, with ongoing work to ensure schools have the necessary training and resources. For post-16 provision, established collaborations between schools like Ysgol Gyfun Gymraeg Bryn Tawe and Ysgol Gyfun Gŵyr, and Morriston Comprehensive School and Bishop Vaughan Catholic Comprehensive School, are enhancing learner choice and access to a wider range of academic and vocational courses.

Future Impacts of the Declining Birth Rate on Education and Schools

Michelle Thomas, Funding and Information Team Manager, presented a report on the projected impacts of the declining birth rate on Swansea schools. The report indicated a sustained decline in pupil numbers, primarily driven by falling birth rates, which is expected to lead to a significant reduction of approximately 5,350 pupils by 2032, representing a 17% decrease. This decline is projected to be most significant in the primary sector, with almost 4,000 fewer pupils.

The report highlighted the implications for school organisation, with a projected increase in surplus capacity from 19.6% to 38% in primary schools and from 10.5% to 18.9% in secondary schools by 2032. This will present challenges for school funding, estate utilisation, and the long-term sustainability of provision, particularly for very small schools. While the projections are robust, Councillor Robert Smith, Cabinet Member for Education and Learning, noted that forecasting is not an exact science and that economic factors and population changes could influence future numbers. The panel discussed the importance of stakeholder engagement and transparent communication throughout any future reorganisation processes.

Work Plan 2026/2027

The Panel reviewed its work plan for the upcoming year. The next meeting will be an informal visit to St David's Roman Catholic Primary School on 22 October 2026. Future agenda items include briefings on school leadership capacity, workforce wellbeing, the impact of extreme weather on schools, and a review of the inclusion and behaviour strategy. The Panel also noted that a cluster of schools will be visited in January 2027 to discuss the Curriculum for Wales.