The Children & Young People Overview and Scrutiny Committee of Warwickshire Council met on Tuesday 06 January 2026 to consider a call-in regarding the Annual Education Sufficiency Update. The committee resolved to make recommendations to Cabinet concerning the methodology for forecasting school places and the organisation of local member engagement.

Call-in: Annual Education Sufficiency Update

The committee considered a call-in request concerning the Annual Education Sufficiency Update, which had been endorsed by Cabinet on 11 December 2025. The call-in was lodged by Councillors Keith Kondakor, Jonathan Chilvers, Nicki Scott, and Senthil Karadiar, who raised concerns about the potential for over-provision of school places undermining the viability of existing primary schools. They argued that the sufficiency strategy had not adequately considered the sharp reduction in net migration and the slowing housing market, and that sensitivity analysis for low net migration and reduced house building was necessary.

Councillor Keith Kondakor, a member of the committee, stated that the sufficiency strategy lacked sensitivity to the significant turning point in population trends, with falling birth rates and a drastic reduction in child migration. He highlighted that projections were based on assumptions of massive population growth that were no longer accurate, leading to a potential crisis in primary schools. Councillor Jonathan Chilvers, Leader of the Green Group, echoed these concerns, particularly regarding the unique situation in Rugby, which has experienced significant population growth and relies on its good schools to attract new residents. He expressed disappointment at the lack of communication and reliance on potentially outdated officer modelling.

Officers from Warwickshire County Council, including Nigel Minns, Executive Director for Children and Young People, and Matt Smith, Strategy Manager for Education and Efficiency, explained the complexities of forecasting school places. They detailed the methodology used, which aligns with Department for Education guidance and is subject to annual review and validation. They acknowledged the challenges of balancing supply and demand, particularly in areas with significant housing development, and the lag in delivering new school places.

The committee engaged in a detailed discussion about the data and modelling used for education sufficiency planning. Councillors raised points about the accuracy of NHS data, occupancy rates for new housing, and the impact of national policies on local provision. There was a particular focus on the need for greater sensitivity analysis in forecasting to account for fluctuating migration and housing market trends.

Councillor Jennifer McAllister highlighted local issues in North Leamington, where parents were struggling to secure places at North Leamington School, despite the overall figures suggesting capacity. She questioned the broad planning areas used for secondary schools and advocated for a review of these boundaries.

The committee ultimately resolved to make three recommendations to Cabinet:

1. Increased sensitivity analysis in data and projections at a local level: This would involve exploring different scenarios for migration and housing build-out to provide a more nuanced understanding of future school place needs.
2. District and borough area sufficiency workshops for members: These workshops would allow for more detailed examination of local data and circumstances, fostering a better understanding of specific area needs.
3. Re-evaluation of planning areas, particularly at secondary school level: This recommendation aims to ensure that planning areas are appropriately defined to reflect local demand and provision, potentially leading to more accurate assessments of need in specific localities.

The committee also discussed the importance of data accessibility, with a suggestion that more data be made available on the council's website to aid transparency and understanding. The recommendations were unanimously approved by the committee to be sent to Cabinet for consideration.