Decision Maker: Strategy and Resources Policy Committee

Outcome: Recommendations Approved

Is Key Decision?: Yes

Is Callable In?: No

Date of Decision: March 19, 2025

Purpose: Update post Central Government fiscal event

Content: 10.1 The Director of Finance & Commercial Services submitted a report setting out an interim update to the Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) for 2025/26 to 2028/29 published in July 2024 to this Committee. The report sets out the scale of mitigations required to offset estimated budget pressures over the next 4 years highlighting the changes following publication of the Provisional Local Government Settlement (LGFS), the impact of Business Planning on the 2025/26 position and any updates to the working assumptions for future years.      10.2 RESOLVED UNANIMOUSLY: That Strategy and Resources Policy Committee:-       (a) notes the updated Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) budget gap stands at £52.3m by 2028/29, an improvement of £16.7m compared to the MTFS published in July 2024;   (b) notes this improvement is mainly the result of balancing the 2025/26 Budget;   (c) notes the overall gap for 2026/27 to 2028/29 has worsened by £14.7m and reflects updated forecasts around inflation assumptions, insights from recent reviews on demands for services and potential investments; and   (d) notes for consideration the key assumptions applied in determining the updated MTFS budget gap as set out in Appendix 2 of this report.     10.3 Reasons for Decision     10.3.1 The Council is required to both set a balanced budget and to ensure that in-year income and expenditure are balanced. No other alternatives were considered.     10.4 Alternatives Considered and Rejected     10.4.1 The Sensitivity Analysis section of this report sets out what might be the result of changes to the assumptions applied in our MTFS planning. Accepted assumption are based on stress testing by business strategy and financial professionals within the council to arrive at our best estimates.