The Budget Scrutiny Task Group meeting on 19 November 2024 was the third of a series of meetings about the Medium Term Financial Plan (MTFP), which sets out the Council's spending plans for the next three years. The meeting covered the Autumn Budget, the Council's Fairer Westminster strategy, a background on the General Fund Budget, the updated budget position and budget reports for Children’s Services and Adult Social Care and Public Health.

The most significant item on the agenda was the updated budget position. The report pack states that the Council is facing a budget gap of £40.7m over the next three years. This is a significant reduction from the £54.8m budget gap that was reported to the Cabinet in July 2024.

The meeting also included a presentation on the key risks to the budget.

Key Macro Risks

• Funding – there is continued uncertainty with the level of funding the Council will receive for 2025/26. Local Govt received additional funding in the budget, but the distribution of this is not clear yet. There is also longer-term uncertainty due to proposed changes in the methodology for the funding allocation formulas. Employer’s NI in the public sector is to be funded for direct employees – amounts for each Council are yet to be determined. • Inflation – increased inflationary pressures on the cost of pay and contracts always present a risk to the Council. After a period of high inflation stability seems to have resumed with September CPI at 1.7%. The Council budgets for inflation in line with the Bank of England target of 2%. However, every 1% above this would cost c£3.7m.

The report notes that the Council is facing several key risks, including uncertainty over the level of funding it will receive from central government and the impact of inflation.

Children’s Services

The Children's Services budget report pack included a discussion of the key issues facing the service, including increasing demand for services, the complexity of need among children and families, and the financial pressures facing the service. The report pack states that the Children's Services department needs to make savings of £4.25m over the next three years.

Adult Social Care

The Adult Social Care budget report pack included a presentation on the key issues facing the service, including the impact of changes in national policy, the challenges facing the local care market and the financial pressures facing the service. The report pack states that the Adult Social Care department is facing demographic pressures of £4.42m in 2025/26.

Public Health

The Public Health budget report pack included a presentation on the key issues facing the service, including the impact of changes in national policy, the challenges facing the local health and care system, and the financial pressures facing the service. The report pack states that the Public Health Grant is expected to continue to grow in cash terms.

Voluntary and Community Sector

The Voluntary and Community Sector report pack included a discussion of the key investments that the Council is making in the sector. The report pack states that the Council is investing £0.92m in the Changing Futures programme, which supports the delivery of the homelessness strategy. The report pack also states that the Council is investing £0.4m in a grants programme to fund a series of supplementary advice services.

Core Spending Power (CSP): Core spending power is the total amount that a local authority can spend on services. It is made up of several different funding streams, including government grants, council tax and business rates. Fairer Westminster: The Fairer Westminster strategy is Westminster Council's plan for improving outcomes for its residents, local businesses and visitor experience. The Health and Care Act 2022: The Health and Care Act 2022 is a piece of legislation that reformed the NHS in England and made changes to the way that health and social care services are delivered. The Lord Darzi review: The Lord Darzi review was an independent review of the NHS in England that was published in 2008. Change NHS plan: The Change NHS plan was a plan published by NHS England in June 2024 which set out how it plans to implement some of the recommendations of the Hewitt Review. Fair Cost of Care exercise: The Fair Cost of Care exercise was a review of the way that adult social care is funded in England, published in December 2021. S117 Aftercare: Section 117 of the Mental Health Act 1983 places a legal duty on health and social care services to provide after care services for individuals who have been detained under the Act. Changing Futures programme: The Changing Futures programme was a £64 million, five-year programme funded by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC) and the National Lottery Community Fund, to improve services for adults experiencing multiple disadvantage, such as homelessness, substance misuse and mental health issues. Westminster was one of 15 areas in England to receive funding.