The Performance and Overview Scrutiny Committee met to discuss the council's revenue budget, social care, and safeguarding. The committee scrutinised the revenue position, strategic direction for social care, and the performance of safeguarding arrangements.

Revenue Budget Forecast 2025/26

The committee scrutinised the council's revenue budget forecast for the 2025/26 financial year. The Revenue Monitoring Update 1 report indicated a forecast overspend of £533,000, representing a 0.2% variance against the approved budget. Key budgetary risks identified include:

• Volatility of demand for high-cost services, particularly in adults and children's social care.
• Higher inflation levels than originally budgeted.
• Risk of non-delivery of £10.7m of budgeted savings targets, with services forecasting 92.1% delivery.
• Reducing debt recovery, particularly in council tax and social care.
• Forecast increase in the cumulative schools reserves deficit.

The report noted that confirmation had been received for funding related to the increased cost of Employers' National Insurance Contributions, resulting in a funding shortfall of £811k or 24% compared to the actual cost increases. The council will use its contingency budget of £850k to address this shortfall.

The committee also noted the forecast increase in the deficit on cumulative schools reserves of £2,835,000, resulting in school balances ending the financial year in a deficit of £6,926,000, with eighteen of thirty-five schools forecast to be in a deficit balance. Schools budgeting to end the 2025/26 financial year in a deficit balance are required to bring forward recovery plans by October half term.

Specific cost pressures remain within social care despite significant investment. In adult services, this is driven by the rising demand for high-cost care packages, particularly in placements. In children's services, financial strain has emerged due to the need to sustain family support following the withdrawal of certain Welsh Government grants. Fleet Maintenance is forecasting a £171k overspend, driven by increased fuel costs, hire charges, and EV charger inspection and maintenance. Passenger transport faces a net overspend of £392k, driven by a £265k shortfall in school transport.

As part of the approved revenue budget, services were required to deliver savings totalling £10,701,000. The current forecast indicates a projected shortfall of £847,000 (7.9%) in meeting this target.

Social Care, Safeguarding and Health Annual Report

The committee received and scrutinised the Chief Officer for Social Care Annual Report for 2024/25. The report is a requirement under the Social Services and Wellbeing (Wales) Act 2014, and it evaluates progress against social care priorities, provides an evaluation of social care and health services, analyses the impact of the current operating context, and sets out actions and priorities for 2025/2026.

The report highlighted several key areas:

• Leadership: Stability within the social care leadership team has allowed the pursuit of deep-rooted programmes of change.
• Workforce: The number of people employed within the social care workforce has remained consistent with approximately 820 colleagues.
• Financial Resources: The overall budget for 2024/25 for social care was £68,088,000. Savings mandates of £4,949,000 were applied for 2024/25 with savings of £3,627,000 being achieved.
• People: The service adopts a strength-based approach to working with people, listening to their stories, exploring their experiences and learning about what matters to them.
• Prevention: Providing early support and working to help promote individual and community resilience remains central ethos of the service.
• Partnership and Integration: Partnership arrangements within the directorate remain strong.
• Wellbeing: The service aims to protect and safeguard people from abuse and neglect and support them to actively manage their well-being and make their own decisions.

Priority actions for 2025/26 include reviewing the overall preventative offer, implementing changes at the front door of adult services, improving the provision of information regarding financial assessments and charging, increasing in-house reablement capacity, and taking forward the outcomes from the Adult Services inspection undertaken in April 2025.

Safeguarding Annual Report

The committee scrutinised the Annual Safeguarding Evaluation Report for 2024/25. The report evaluated the progress of Monmouthshire County Council's key safeguarding priorities, highlighting progress, identifying risks, and setting out actions and priorities for 2025-2026.

The report noted that the Corporate Safeguarding Policy has helped to inform this evaluation report. The analysis reflects progress against priority areas set out within the policy and forms an integral part of the continual development of safeguarding practice across the council.

The report highlighted several key areas:

• Good Governance: The council ensures that safeguarding for children and adults at risk is understood as everyone's responsibility .
• Safe Workforce: The council ensures that safe recruitment and human resource practices operate effectively and are embedded across the council for the whole workforce.
• Preventative Approach: The council works with partners to identify emerging issues, risks and challenges to our communities.
• Robust Protection: The council operates best practice in protecting children and adults at risk and ensure that all concerns about possible abuse or neglect are recognised and responded to appropriately and within a Statutory framework.
• Safe Services: The council uses its influence to ensure that services operating in Monmouthshire, including commissioned and those outside the direct control of the council, do so in ways which promote the welfare and safety of children and adults at risk.

Council and Cabinet Work Plan

The committee reviewed the Council and Cabinet Work Plan. Councillor Jill Bond reiterated her request from Place committee that this plan be amended to show more clearly which reports have already gone to Cabinet/Council, and which are still forthcoming. Officers reassured members that this point has been passed on to Democratic Services to form part of the overall changes being made to the planner.

Performance and Overview Scrutiny Work Programme and Action List

The committee reviewed the Performance and Overview Scrutiny Work Programme and Action List. A Special meeting has been added on 3rd December, and another is being arranged for January. Note that some of the 3rd June Actions have been sent to the committee since the agenda was published.

Councillor Paul Pavia noted that there are too many items on each agenda, and that this volume of work needs to be worked through with the Chair. Officers assured members that this is already something that they wish to address, and will indeed discuss options with the Chair as soon as possible.

Councillor Bond noted that the Grants item should ideally be covered before Spring so that there is the possibility of the committee's comments feeding into next year's strategy. The scrutiny team will pass this point on to the finance officers.

Confirmation of Previous Minutes

The committee confirmed the minutes of the previous special meeting held on 9 July 2025 and the minutes of the ordinary meeting held on 15 July 2025.

The next meeting was scheduled for 18 November 2025.