The Children and Young People Scrutiny Committee meeting on 20 January 2026 focused on school budgets, educational performance, investment in the education estate, and the sustainable growth of Welsh-medium secondary education. Key decisions included noting the school budget update, which indicated a projected cumulative deficit of £2.2 million by March 2026, a £6 million improvement on previous predictions, and agreeing to write to the Cabinet Member with committee observations on various agenda items.

School Budgets Update

The committee received an update on school budgets, noting that 54 schools are predicted to be in deficit, with a cumulative deficit of £2.2 million by March 2026. This represents a £6 million improvement on earlier predictions, though schools are still spending £10 million over budget annually. Factors contributing to deficits include increasing complexity of Additional Learning Needs (ALN), decreasing pupil numbers impacting funding, and higher teacher pay scales. Officers explained that the ALN strategy and expansion of specialist ALN places are expected to alleviate some financial pressures on mainstream schools. The council is also reviewing its funding formula and considering assumptions on out-of-county placement budgets. A new deficit protocol has been introduced with a more defined escalation process and robust controls on staffing arrangements. Members also received clarification that pay awards and National Insurance increases for 2025-26 are fully covered within school budgets.

Annual Education Performance Report 2024-2025

This report provided an overview of educational outcomes for Cardiff learners, highlighting strong performance at Key Stage 3 and 4, successful ESTYN inspections with only two schools in measures, rising attendance, and falling exclusions in secondary schools. However, challenges remain, including a persistent disadvantage gap and an unexpected decline in girls' attendance and performance at Key Stage 4. The committee was informed that new Welsh Government guidance for school improvement has been received, which clarifies roles and responsibilities and strengthens accountability for local authorities holding schools to account. Further briefings are planned on attendance strategies, data disaggregation for children looked after, and the role of Collaborative Learning Partnerships (CLIPS). The committee also noted an increase in primary school exclusions.

Annual Investment in the Education Estate

The committee reviewed the progress of the School Organisation Programme (SOP) and wider investment in schools. Key achievements include the delivery of Band B investments, the completion of the first net-zero carbon school buildings at Fairwater Campus, and significant investment in existing school buildings. Challenges include declining birth rates impacting school place planning and rising demand for specialist ALN provision. The report highlighted that 27 schools have condition C or C- ratings, and five are rated D for suitability, with estimated costs of £69 million for condition works and £82 million for suitability and sufficiency. Funding for these works has largely come from Welsh Government grants and 'Invest to Save' initiatives. The committee discussed the sustainability of surplus places and the financial implications of managing them.

Engagement on Sustainable Growth of Welsh Medium Secondary Education

This agenda item focused on exploring options for the sustainable growth of Welsh-medium secondary education in Cardiff. The council is initiating an early engagement exercise, not a formal consultation, to canvas options and receive feedback. This is in response to a shortfall in Welsh-medium secondary school places and the historical geographical spread of existing schools. Options being explored include temporary measures to increase intakes at existing schools for the 2027/28 academic year, and longer-term strategies such as expanding existing sites, relocating schools, establishing new schools, or introducing Welsh language provision within English-medium schools. The engagement will run from February to the end of March, with feedback to be considered in the summer term. Challenges around recruiting Welsh-speaking teachers and the financial implications of new provision were also discussed.

St Mellons Church in Wales Primary School to the Saints Federation (Consultation Output Report)

The committee received a briefing on the consultation process regarding the proposal to add St Mellons Church in Wales Primary School to The Saints Federation. The consultation, which ran from 23 October to 15 December 2025, involved staff, governors, parents, and the wider community. Of the 49 responses received, 59.2% were supportive of the proposal, citing benefits such as improved leadership, teaching and learning, and school-to-school support. Concerns raised included the need for a full-time headteacher at St Mellons, communication issues, potential changes to school ethos, and the size of the federated organisation. The council noted that the status of each school (Voluntary Aided or Voluntary Controlled) would remain with the individual schools, not the federated governing body, and that legal advice confirmed this arrangement is permissible.

Way Forward

The committee discussed the Way Forward for future scrutiny, identifying several areas for further investigation and reporting. These included a request for a report on the authority's plans for managing surplus school places and their financial implications, a deeper dive into the monitoring of children educated at home (EHE), and a briefing from the Virtual Headteacher for Children Looked After. The committee also requested more detailed geographical breakdowns of attendance and exclusion data, and clarification on the funding of vocational versus academic courses. The need for more comprehensive data presentation and analysis was highlighted across several agenda items. The committee agreed to write to the Cabinet Member to convey their observations and recommendations.