Purpose

Following a reduction in birth rate and fall in the number of pupils within the local area the Local Authority and School have reviewed the admission number at Leigh North Street Primary School. The application is to reduce the admission number at the school from 90 to 60, to support financial planning and education outcomes at the school.

Decision

The Cabinet Member for Technology, Learning and Customer Care agrees to:

1. 1.     Approve the principle of a submission to the OSA to authorise the variation of the determined admission arrangements for the School by reducing the reception PAN from 90 places to 60 with effect from September 2027; and
2. 2.     Delegate authority to the Executive Director for Children and Public Health, in consultation with the Director of Education, Inclusion and Early Years, to:

a) consult with the School;

b) finalise and submit the application and supporting evidence and to respond to any further information requested by the OSA; and

     c) notify the prescribed bodies upon confirmation of any variation.

Reasons for the decision

Birth rates have been falling across Southend-on-Sea since 2015, with the effect becoming increasingly evident in reception intakes from the early 2020s. Live births fell from 2,213 in 2015/16 to 1,581 in 2021/22, with lower cohorts forecast to continue through the period relevant to admissions in 2027, 2028 and 2029.

School capacity is based upon thresholds of 30 children.  For each threshold that is reached, there are specific requirements around provision of teachers and support.  Each threshold is referred to as a ‘form of entry’.  Therefore, reducing 90 places to 60, is a reduction from 3 forms of entry, to 2 forms of entry.

Without further intervention, surplus reception capacity across the city is forecast to reach approximately 12% by 2029/30. Since 2020, the Council has worked with school leaders to remove a net 11 forms of entry of surplus primary capacity where evidence has demonstrated this to be appropriate. These changes have enabled the Council to respond to falling demand while maintaining sufficient school places and parental choice across the City. Current modelling indicates that a further reduction of approximately 11 forms of entry across the City may be required over the next four years to restore surplus capacity to a sustainable range of 5–8%.

The School is within the Leigh Planning Area. There are currently 570 Reception places across seven schools in the area. Forecast demand is 468 places for 2027, 540 for 2028 and 442 for 2029, producing forecast surplus capacity of approximately 25%, 14% and 29% respectively if no mitigating action is taken.

The September 2026 allocation position indicates approximately 133 vacant Reception places across the Leigh Planning Area, equivalent to a surplus of around 23%. We are seeing a continual reduction in the number of parents requesting the School as its first preference that shows a lower demand for the School. The figures support this reduction in demand:

a.     For September 2026, it received 60 first preferences, which is lower than the available spaces and

b.     Its total preferences reduced form 222 in 2024 to 176 in 2026.

The planning area is densely developed, has limited scope for substantial new housing and currently has no significant housing development expected to generate additional short-term demand. Although pupil forecasts will continue to be reviewed and longer-term Local Plan development may increase demand, the current evidence supports action to reduce excess capacity now. Forecasts are reviewed annually and, should demand increase materially in future years, admission arrangements can be reconsidered through the statutory admissions process.

A reduction from 90 to 60 places would remove 1 form of entry and align the school’s published capacity more closely with forecast demand. Sufficient places would remain available within the planning area to meet forecast demand and support parental preference.

The admission arrangements for September 2027 have already been determined. Consequently, the Council cannot amend the PAN unilaterally and must request a variation from the OSA. The OSA will consider the evidence, the Council’s sufficiency duty (providing a place for every child plus a surplus of 3-7%) and the capacity of local schools to meet parental preference before making its decision.

Alternative options considered

Do not submit a variation request. This would retain a PAN of 90 for September 2027 despite evidence of sustained surplus capacity and declining demand. This option is not recommended because it would limit the Council’s ability to manage the primary estate sustainably and could increase financial and organisational pressures on the school and neighbouring provision.

Seek a different level or timing of reduction. A reduction of one form of entry from September 2027 is considered proportionate to the evidence currently available. Forecasts will continue to be reviewed and any further changes would be considered separately through the appropriate statutory admissions process.