Decision

That Cabinet note the forecast revenue budget overspend of £464,000 at Update 1, representing a forecast 0.2% variance against the approved budget for the year.

That Cabinet note that, while the Update 1 forecast is reporting a small net overspend, the overall position remains broadly manageable at this stage of the year. This reflects the impact of recent service reform, demand management, income maximisation and budget discipline, while recognising the specific budget risks that will continue to be managed through future monitoring updates, including:

? demand volatility in high-cost services, particularly adults’ and children’s social care;

? inflationary and contractual cost pressures where these affect commissioned services, supplies, utilities or income targets;

? delivery of the approved £4.291m savings programme, with services currently forecasting 85.7% delivery and a £614,000 shortfall;

? the impact of one-off or annually allocated grant funding streams where these support core service activity; and

? the cumulative schools reserves deficit and the impact this has on the Council’s overall financial resilience.

That Cabinet note the forecast movement in cumulative schools reserves as outlined in Appendix 4. Schools are currently forecasting a further draw on reserves of £2,457,000 during 2026/27, resulting in a projected cumulative deficit balance of £9,337,000 by year-end, with eighteen schools forecast to be in deficit.

That Cabinet note the forecast movement in school reserve balances and request that the Strategic Director for Learning, Skills and Economy undertake a review of all schools categorised as high risk (Appendix 4) and report, in the first instance, to the Cabinet Members for Education and Resources on the adequacy of budget recovery plans, progress against agreed actions and whether any further support, challenge or intervention is required to secure financial recovery.